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Managing Director of Paul Budde Communication
Joined on February 4, 2009 – Australia
Total Post Views: 93,530
| About |
Paul Budde is the managing director of Paul Budde Communication (trading as BuddeComm), a global independent telecommunications research and consultancy company, which includes 45 national and international researchers in 15 countries.
His website (www.budde.com.au) has 2,000 research reports covering 170 countries, 400 companies and 200 technologies and applications. The company operates what is believed to be the largest telecommunications research service on the Internet and has over 3,000 customers in 80 different countries.
Paul is frequently interviewed on radio and television current affairs and news programs, as well as by the leading national and international financial and business press. He is quoted in company prospectuses and his knowledge of the industry is a valuable resource at the governmental level. He provides strategic advice on telecoms and digital economy policies to governments on three continents.
For more information on Strategic Workshops and Roundtables please click here.
With $72 billion invested in mobile broadband it would be hard to argue that this market is suffering from a lack of investment. More than half of this is taking place in Asia. Over the last two years close to 300 mobile operators in 120 countries have launched mobile broadband networks (using the 3G HSPA technology) and some 70 of these are already planning the next upgrade of their networks using the LTE technology -- the first $5 billion of investment money has been committed to that technology. more»
The venerated BBC World Service recently commissioned a polled involving more than 27,000 people across 26 countries. The findings are unremarkable: some 87% of Internet users believe that Internet access should be a basic right, and more than 70% of non-users believe that they should have access to it. more»
The National Broadband Plan that the FCC will present on 17 March will set the USA on a completely different telecoms path. This plan will hopefully show Congress that it is worthwhile making the legislative changes that will deliver the social and economic benefits of a national broadband infrastructure. more»
I recently participated in two Comverse events, and once again the message was driven home to me about the enormous opportunities that lie ahead of the industry in the field of new telecoms applications. The middleware and cloud applications that are now appearing at the edge of the network will of course, be further developed once high-speed broadband becomes available, but already they are having an enormous impact on the telecoms market. The new user experiences that can be obtainable through these applications will enrich fast broadband networks beyond recognition. What we now have is, on the one hand, the Over-The-Top (OTT) applications that have conquered the world... more»
In marketing terminology this is called 'jumping the S-curve'. Microsoft, however, has left its jump rather late. One could argue that we are well and truly at the top of the S at the moment, so it will be interesting to see if Microsoft can still take the leap towards the enormous growth that is currently taking place in the group of digital media companies such as Google and Apple. more»
The blogs are flying all around the world -- some seem to get it right but most do not. My analysis of Google's announcement to become involved in building FttH networks is actually the same as the one as I made when that company announced its plans to build wireless city networks, and when it announced its intention to invest in submarine cable networks. more»
This is a new development in the VoIP market. This is how one of my colleagues, Cullen Jennings explained it to me. Today we have two widely deployed global identifiers for reaching people. One is delegated address out of DNS and the other is phone numbers. So I consider an address like email: carol@johnson.com or xmpp:john@gmail.com to roughly be out of the DNS namespace and phone number to be out of the E.164 name space. Phone numbers have lots of parts that are not cool, but they also have some cool parts... more»
The arrival of the iPhone, Android and iPad will raise the stakes higher in the mobile broadband market. The fact that iPhone alone has over 140,000 Apps over sort of open networks, not portals, shows the demand for mobile applications. This will put an enormous strain on the infrastructure of the mobile operators and will require them to build fibre networks to all mobile stations, as well as invest in more spectrum and new technologies such as LTE. At the same time the mobile subscriber markets are becoming saturated and competition is driving margins down. more»
Before, during and after his inaugural speech (January 2009) President Obama spoke of the national benefits of broadband, and the changes which have been set in motion in the US telecoms market that were unheard of even a year ago. During the previous administration the incumbent telcos and cable companies had been given more freedom. As a consequence, innovation and competition dwindled and the US was no longer a leader in telecoms... However, since that time, the White House has lost some of its initial leadership. more»
The scale of the devastation inflicted by Haiti's earthquake a little over two weeks ago, meant that no industry has been left untouched by its effect. The telecommunications sector is no exception. Ever since the earthquake struck on Tuesday 12th January, fixed line and wireless communications have been virtually unavailable. more»
Over the last few years the increasing amount of discussion about telecoms reveals that the real competition for telecoms companies is not from other telcos, but companies such as Google and others. While I agree with this, obviously it is important to analyse it further. more»
The US Congress asked the FCC for a bold plan to achieve the bold vision expressed by the Congress... We discussed this issue in our Big Think group and here are some comments. more»
With the prospect of broadband networks becoming more and more of a reality, it appears that concepts such as eHealth are not too far away. Digital healthcare describes the whole system of GPs, hospitals and regional healthcare centres, while eHealth describes the many health applications which will become available for people to use at home. more»
The small West African country of Benin has been working quietly over the past few years to become a regional hub for international fibre bandwidth. The national telco, Benin Telecoms (BT) has been building terrestrial fibre routes to landlocked neighbouring countries such as Burkina Faso and Niger, allowing them to connect to its landing station for the SAT-3/WASC cable, the only one serving the region. more»
In the past five years, as one of the country's 'pillar industry', China's telecom service industry has grown at a faster rate than the country's GDP. Revenue from basic telecom service contributes approximately 2.1% of the country's GDP, while value added telecom services contribute a further 3.2% to total GDP. more»
The French are good at 'doing' infrastructure. The country takes pride in a civil service which has been progressively centralised since the efforts of Cardinal Richelieu in the mid-17th century. The well-funded health system is among the best in Europe. The generously subsidised rail service, the SNCF, also rates highly. These and other components of the modern French State cost money, and the government has rarely proven shy in supporting big ideas, particularly if they are so readily equated with public welfare and benefit. more»
The Netherlands remains one of the few countries in Europe to have significant FttH networks. Until 2009, the main characteristic of Dutch fibre rollouts was the dominant role played by housing corporations and municipal governments. This focus changed following KPN's acquisition of a 41% stake in the fibre provider Reggefiber and the subsequent ramping-up of their efforts and investment through their joint venture Glashart. more»
The further we move into discussions about the implementation of national broadband networks the more issues crop up that need to be discussed in this context. One topic that is currently getting a great deal of attention is the need (or not) for an RF video layer to be deployed over the fibre network. Both business and technical elements are involved in this, but let's start with some of the business elements... more»
VoIP has been banned across most of Africa for a long time, feared by the state-owned telcos as a way for alternative service providers to bypass them with international calls, eroding a very lucrative part of their business. At profit margins of several thousand percent in some cases, it is not surprising that unlicensed operators have sprung up all over the continent, risking huge fines, confiscation of their equipment and even jail terms. more»
Europe's electronic communications sector is currently governed by directives adopted in 2002. These stipulated that the directives and regulatory framework should be reviewed, a processed initialised in November 2007. Both the European Council and the European Parliament need to adopt the proposed changes, and none of the initial consultations conducted by the EC indicated that a major overhaul was on the cards, or even required. Yet this is what has transpired. more»
The Optical Network Terminal (ONT) is the piece of equipment at the end of the Fiber to the Home (FttH) network; the connection to the premises. From here the various services can be delivered to the end-users. In Australia the FttH infrastructure company NBN Co is in favour of having the ONT on the outside of the premises, as that would be the cheapest option and would also allow for easier maintenance. Only in multi-dwelling buildings the ONT will most probably be installed within each unit. more»
The success of smart phone, in particular the iPhone, is both a blessing and a curse for the mobile operators. On the one hand it has broken into the monopolistic business models used by most operators and has most certainly loosened part of their stranglehold; on the other, these phones have increased usage on their networks. But these cracks are going to continue and will eventually lead to similar structural changes in the mobile industry to the ones we are currently experiencing in the fixed market. more»
Finland's national broadband strategy (NBS) was set up in 2004 by the Ministry of Transport and Communications with the practical goal of increasing the number of broadband connections. The strategy, part guided by the EU's i2010 'Broadband for all by 2010' plan which focuses on rolling out broadband through a range of measures while promoting competition in and between networks, included an implementation program of 50 separate measures. Broadband access in sparsely populated and rural areas was to be supported by structural funds from the EU and central government. more»
As countries begin to fully understand the implications of universal broadband, a mind-shift is taking place in the minds of the people involved in the decision-making processes, and the split between infrastructure and content is becoming more apparent. Futile regulations from the past are making this crystal clear. more»
The global telecoms industry numbers remain impressive: By 2020 there will be 6 billion mobile subscribers -- of which, according to Nokia, 95% will have access to wireless broadband by 2015, and by 2020, there will also be 3 billion fixed broadband subscribers. However the relevance of these numbers will decline. By 2020 there will be 50 billion fixed and mobile connections. more»
During the ITU Conference I had the honour of a private meeting with Dr Hamadoun Touré, Secretary-General of the ITU since 2006... Dr Touré has a fascinating background. Born in Mali and educated in Russia, he has brought with him a distinctly fresh approach to the ITU. He has been Africa's Regional General Manager for ICO Global Communications and worked at various levels at the International Telecommunications Satellite Organization (INTELSAT). more»
Very little was said about telecommunications during the official speeches and forums at ITU Telecom World 2009. The industry is even talking about changing its focus from telecommunications to ICT [United Nations Information and Communication Technologies Task Force], Discussions are now focusing on how ICT can be used to underpin the various socio-economic developments that are taking place. more»
Over the last years the telecommunications market has been regulated on the basis of operating telephony services. Internet access has been added to this in recent years but it is still essentially linked to telephone line regulations. While major societal changes have been happening, since the 1980s at least, very few policy changes were made around the telecoms industry to enable it to play a key role in these changes. Key telecoms reforms in the mid- and late 1990s still refused to take a more multi-media -- or perhaps what we now call a trans-sector -- approach towards the industry. more»
Over the last year I have become deeply involved in the debate in the USA regarding the future of their telecoms sector, which is proceeding very much along the lines of the trans-sector approach towards infrastructure (using it for other sectors such as healthcare, education, energy), open networks and a separation between infrastructure and applications. While many of the issues are universal it was also interesting to observe the specific elements that make the USA so unique. more»
Government are recognising that healthcare is one of the last paper-based sectors of the economy. It has been estimated that, quite apart from the costs involved, this leads to then of thousands of deaths each year. There is no doubt that a fully integrated computerised e-health system will bring with it its own challenges, and will undoubtedly on occasions also deliver its share of problems. But, as has been the case with all other sectors of society and the economy, integrated computerisation in this sector will improve the situation. more»
When discussions with overseas colleagues made it clear to me how fast things are changing here in Australia compared with the rest of the world, I was prompted to write this update about the developments in Australia, particularly in relation to its incumbent telco, Telstra. Most people overseas have not yet fully caught up with the fact that the destructive regime of Telstra's former CEO is well and truly over -- in the past there has been plenty of international reporting of the shocking behaviour of Telstra under Sol Trujillo (former US West) and his persistent attacks on the government included suing Ministers and abusing the Regulator. more»
In January 2009 the US Congress began considering the American Recovery and Reinvestment Bill 2009 aimed at kick-starting an economy in deep recession. The package, passed into law on 17 February, comprised $787 billion of mainly tax cuts, unemployment benefits and spending in education, health care, infrastructure and energy. Included in the fiscal stimulus package was a relatively modest $7.2 billion for broadband and wireless in unserved and underserved areas... more»
Australia, New Zealand and the USA have taken international leadership in relation to their approaches to the infrastructure investment their countries are committed to in relation to the multi-billion dollar investment in national broadband and smart grid infrastructure. This is based on open networks, which will allow multiple access to infrastructure that can be used for e-health, smart grids, tele-education, as well as, of course, to telecoms, Internet and entertainment services. more»
Around the world governments, regulators and the industry are struggling with the old regulatory legacy systems. These have become a major stumbling block in the transition to a new environment. Increasingly countries are beginning to understand the social and economic benefits a national broadband infrastructure can offer, but it is impossible to bring that about while the systems are based on the present regulatory regimes. To take these broader benefits into account we will need to develop government policies to facilitate the digital economy... more»
I recently followed an interesting international discussion on FttH vs. cable. With the fiber to the home (FttH) debate hotting up, driven by the possibility of using FttH as the new infrastructure for the digital economy, the cable companies are putting up a stiff fight, both in Europe (Netherlands) and the USA, claiming FttH is not necessary, and that DOCSIS 3.0 can do the job just as well. In these debates the longer-term national interest is often disregarded. The debate is confined to the technology -- what it can and cannot do -- and it also concentrates on a rather short-term timeframe, say of the next five years. more»
With countries like Australia and New Zealand implementing infrastructure that can deliver 100Mb/s for their next generation broadband -- and with most Europeans not too far behind this -- it is quite shocking to see that the $7.2 billion economic stimulus package in the USA (under the RUS Broadband Initiatives Program (BIP) and the NTIA Broadband Technology Opportunities Program (BTOP)) requires nothing more than 768 kilobits per second (kb/s) downstream and 200 kb/s upstream. more»
It was interesting to see that in New Zealand Vodafone had second thoughts and decided to come up with its own proposal of forming a consortium of network operators, rather than simply supporting the government's announcement of its FttH plans. Our analysis of this change of mind is that mobile operators increasingly need fibre networks to sustain the enormous growth in mobile broadband. Most mobile stations around the world are not connected to a fibre network. more»
The deployment of Fiber to the Home (FttH) around the world is beginning to lead to exciting developments for the next generation of telecommunications. In particular, infrastructure based on FttH is providing the foundation for smart communities and cities where a number of technologies and services are combined to create an enhanced value proposition for residents. Smart homes connected to these networks can utilise services such as tele-health, e-education and e-government as well as access digital media and high speed Internet. more»
As someone closely involved with the Australian National Broadband Network (NBN) and many other fibre plans around the globe, I would like to provide an inside picture of the revolutionary developments that are taking place in the Australian broadband market. Australia's national broadband network will be an FttH-based open wholesale network -- a network that will connect (not pass) 90% of all Australians to fibre, with the remaining 10% of the population being linked to that network through technologies that are capable of delivering equivalent services. more»
FttH networks had begun to arrive well before the financial crisis hit, but surprisingly it is the crisis itself that is now driving fibre beyond its first stage. This first stage was basically a continuation of the 100-year-old vertically-integrated telephone business model. This saw more of the same delivered at higher speeds and higher costs, and there was only a limited market that was willing to pay a premium for such a FttH service... more»
The ongoing witch-hunt from the incumbent telcos in the USA against municipalities that are trying to build their own broadband networks is continuing unabated. This is nothing new... With the economic crisis there has been a new focus on regulatory rules and the importance of the common good, next to the free market. However that message has not yet got through to the incumbent players in the USA. more»
In most of Europe, mobile network operators (MNOs) have largely completed their 3G network roll outs. During the last year or two their focus has been on upgrading these networks with new technologies, including femtocell and, importantly, HSPA. Following trials expected to be held during 2010, LTE will soon be sufficiently advanced for commercial launches. This will provide significant opportunities for Europe's market for convergent services, adding a new platform for delivering a range of media... more»
The penny dropped when I started looking at cloud computing as a service rather than a new technology. In that respect it is more like Google search and a DotCom development than a set of software and hardware tools. That was what I needed to get a better strategic grip on this new concept. As with all services, business strategies are key here, rather than technologies. As soon as it is seen as a technology customer issues often come in second, which then leads to a technology looking for a market... more»
Mobile WiMAX, with the release of 2×2 MIMO chips in 2008, gives WiMAX a lead of two or so years on its major competitor -- the 3GPP's LTE. However, 3G cellphones using 3GPP UMTS technologies, extended to higher speeds with HSPA, is widely used in handsets in many countries. In North America, 3GPP2 CDMA2000 and EV-DO are widely used, but these are likely to be replaced over time by LTE and to some extent WiMAX. more»
When I wrote the BuddeComm analysis on the introduction of Apple's iPhone I commented that the most significant element of this event was that it would begin to create cracks in the flawed business models of the mobile operators, who are desperately hanging on to their closed networks very much like the fixed operators were fighting tooth and nail against opening up their networks. We have seen that the fixed operators have largely lost this battle and we predict that the future of the mobile networks will be no different... more»
In the last few weeks courts in the USA have carried on business as usual. They continue to provide the two major telcos in the USA, Verizon and AT&T, with extraordinary protection -- basically retaining the outdated regulatory system in the USA that identifies the duopoly between the telcos and the cablecos as the best way forward for the development of telecoms competition in this country. This is rather different from the position taken by the new Obama Administration, which has indicated that it will break with past regulations... more»
In the mid-year 2008 rankings by the Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) Council, South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan occupy the top four positions in terms of household penetration percentage. Asia Pacific now accounts for more than 27 million of the world’s 32 million FttH connections. more»
The telecom infrastructure decisions we are now facing have very little to do with developments or the need for services in 2009 or 2010. They are more related to where the digital economy is taking us in the future. This is well beyond the time needed to kick-start sluggish economies. more»
The story of America's lacklustre broadband performance is relatively well known. Part of that story relates to its low broadband penetration levels when compared with other developed economies... Another aspect of the story relates to broadband speeds... in terms of broadband technology levels, the USA still trails behind leading countries such as Japan and Korea, and some European countries such as France and Italy, by a full generation. more»
The City of Amsterdam announcement to now move to the next stage of their FttH (fibre to the home) project -- with another roll out covering 100,000 connections -- is a clear indication that the concept of open access FttH networks is a valid one. This will have large scale implications for countries around the world who are looking at using open network based telecoms infrastructure projects to stimulate their economies. more»
Most developed nations are now revisiting their telecoms policies with a view to using telecoms infrastructure as a tool to revive the economy. And when exploring this it quickly becomes clear that open networks are necessary if we are to achieve the economic benefits that the digital economy has to offer. The multiplier effect of open infrastructure is obvious. It stimulates developments in healthcare, education, energy, media and Internet -- this in stark contrast to the closed (vertically-integrated) networks that are currently operated by most incumbent telcos around the world. more»
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