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The Christmas Goat and IPv6 (Year 10)

This year marked the 10th anniversary of collecting statistics for IPv6 from the Christmas Goat.

It's the third year now with almost no snow, and with this crazy winters and climate, it's hard to get any good photos of the goat. The photo is only from 3–4 days in early December with little snow so far in Gävle.

The measurements this year started very low with 20% IPv6, but it made some improvements and landed just like 2018 at a total of 41%.

Values from previous measurements:

2010 – 0.1% Native IPv6
2011 – 1 %
2012 – 1.4 %
2013 – 3.4 %
2014 – 11.1 %
2015 – 14 %
2016 – 27%
2017 – 40%
2018 – 41%
2019 – 41%

I think the slow start of IPv6 is a result of more and more CGNAT in Sweden and other countries. The IPv4 addresses are used many times in the beginning but reused over and over again.

Over the last years, the IPv6 in countries that are known to "like the Goat" hasn't increased so much. I think that's one explanation of why the stats have remained at about 40%.

Sweden is still struggling with IPv6 and we have decreased our IPv6 in 2019. I can't explain why but Googles latest stat says just over 4%.

More interesting is that Google stat has reached over 30%!

Large countries like India and Japan increased their IPv6 in 2019 but they are not one of the countries that "likes the goat."

And I am repeating this sentence from last year — there is little shame that there are no hits from Gavle kommun's own IPv6 space…

Have a happy and good IPv6 year in 2020, and I hope to continue this measurement in 2020!

By Torbjörn Eklöv, CTO, Senior Network Architect, DNSSEC/IPv6

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Comments

IPv6 Traffic Peaked? By Abraham Chen  –  Jan 05, 2020 7:33 pm PDT

Hi, Torbjorn:

0) Interesting work. I am impressed by your persistence.

1) You may want to review an article written by one of you country men, Christofer Flinta:

http://www.circleid.com/posts/20190529_digging_into_ipv6_traffic_to_google_is_28_percent_deployment_limit/

He generalized the events by curve fitting the statistic data with the Sigmoid function, thus predicted that the IPv6 traffic in Google environment is heading for an asymptotic upper limit of 28.3%.

2) Inspired by his study, our team has been analyzing a larger data base, the AMS-IX statistics. We are seeing practically the same trend, yet at a much lower saturation level! A report of our observation will be forthcoming shortly.

Abe (2020-01-05 21:33)

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