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I recently came across a chart of the most popular top-level domains (TLDs), compiled by Stephane Van Gelder. Although I keep track of country code TLD registrations for the Country Codes of the World map (see also related CircleID post), Stephane tracks all domains, including .com, .net., etc. And when I saw it I got to thinking…
Here's the table of the figures I want to focus on:
| TLD | MAR 2008 | JUN 2008 | GROWTH | |
| 1. | COM | 73,237,706 | 76,744,686 | +5% |
| 2. | CN | 10,544,113 | 12,400,000 | +18% |
| 3. | DE | 11,885,812 | 12,121,707 | +2% |
| 4. | NET | 10,939,386 | 11,622,363 | +6% |
| 5. | UK | 6,569,811 | 6,880,775 | +5% |
| 6. | ORG | 6,560,099 | 6,863,947 | +5% |
| 7. | INFO | 4,932,257 | 4,902,156 | -1% |
| 8. | NL | 2,852,513 | 2,977,191 | +4% |
| 9. | EU | 2,792,262 | 2,818,774 | +1% |
| 10. | BIZ | 1,935,874 | 2,000,000 | +3% |
Source: DomainesInfo.fr
What makes this chart so interesting are the growth rates: .com is growing at 5% and .cn is growing at 18%. Granted, it's easier to grow at 18% when you've only got 12 million registrations, compared with growing at 5% when you've got 76 million registrations.
But growth is growth and .cn is clearly on a roll.
And China has a lot of headroom for growth in terms of Web users and potential domain registrants. I am confident that .cn will reach 50 million registrations over the next 3 years.
At about that point in time, .com should be around 100 million registrants — in no danger of losing its number one status.
However, if the rate of growth of .com registrations were to decrease while .cn rate of growth continues to increase, it's reasonable to wonder if we will one day see the number of .cn registrations surpass .com registrations?
I realize this is a far-fetched scenario.
After all, it's reasonable to assume that companies that register .cn may also register .com — and the majority do just that.
But it's certainly something to contemplate. And even if .cn never comes close to surpassing .com, the overall point I'd like to emphasize here is that .cn is now the world's second most popular top-level domain — and likely to remain that way for many years.
What do you think?
By John Yunker, Author and consultant. Visit the blog maintained by John Yunker here.
Related topics: Domain Names, Top-Level Domains
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Pretty simple to explain really. here is an email from a chinese registrar I received:
15 cent and 50 cent .cn registrations. It would be interesting to correlate price changes and registration numbers. I bet you would see a strong correlation. Like all 'hot' things, it will cool. What it does show you is how cheap it is to really manage the registries and how verisign is taking us all for a ride.
The price is one thing. And the extraordinary growth .CN has seen in recent years does appear to be mainly (if not solely) price driven. But it's usage that's really important. And what we've seen with other "let's grow our extension no matter what and not consider what people actually do with the names once they've got them" schemes is that once the discount period is over, people don't renew.
Worse, because this kind of promotion gives people the idea that domain names aren't worth anything, they are then reluctant to pay for them even when they actually do need them.
It's clear to me that what the Chinese have been doing over the past few years has more to do with politics and their global image than actual TLD use. CN may have now surpassed .DE in terms of registration volumes, but I'm not sure it has in terms of actual use.
Well said Stephane. Like to add to the point that this is what .info did in the run up to contracts for .com/net being potentially reassigned to prove capacity to handle what .com/net would take. Their 99 cent infos turned it into probably the spammiest extension in existence and really ruined it in my opinion. So there are some very obvious downsides to this sort of behavior. It makes a big difference who is buying and why.
... who cares about the numbers it waves around?