The enormous growth in mobile usage, doubling each year, is set to continue for several years in a row. According to Ericsson, by 2020 mobile operators will need to provide one thousand times the capacity that was required in 2010. Our assessment at BuddeComm is that the mobile industry has already fallen behind in delivering the capacity needed today, let alone coping with the enormous growth ahead; and that this situation will deteriorate before it improves. A major concern, however, is that there is no clear industry road map for the future. There is slightly more clarity in relation to the backhaul technologies, but the end-user access problem is still far from reaching a resolution.
The capacity required for the burgeoning wireless broadband market will need to be addressed in completely different ways. Whatever happens with spectrum allocations, now or in the future, there simply will not be enough of it. Different and innovative solutions will need to be applied — probably involving a combination of solutions and technologies, plus a much higher level of collaboration within the broader industry.
The 30-year-old MIMO technology is also being revisited. This technology basically adds a range of antennas to both the transmitter side and the receiver side of the network. It is applied in many industry standards but further developments could assist in increasing the number of antennas, thus increasing the data throughput within the available spectrum. However this theoretical physical solution still needs to be developed into a technological reality.
Fixed Mobile Conversion
Fixed mobile conversion (FMC) is another important development. Eventually the backbone network needs to be fibre-based — perhaps as little as one-third of the network has been upgraded to fibre so far. While microwave technology has proved to be extremely resilient, with more and more cells now added to the network the direct line of sight for smaller cells becomes an issue, and this means that fibre is needed very deep into the cities. Some companies, such as Vodafone, are already actively pursuing options to become involved in fibre optic networks (national broadband networks).
The difference between the fixed and the mobile network will become increasingly blurred, with mobile handsets simply being devices wirelessly connected to the fixed network.
All of this will stimulate FMC. Many incumbents already have the option to provide more integrated services but they deploy this in a limited way so as to avoid cannibalisation and maximise their profits.
As has predicted previously, all these developments will eventually lead to a structural separation between the infrastructure and the services. Once operators start to think along these structurally separated business models, solutions to the mobile infrastructure crisis will become much easier to realise.
Small cell networks
The mobile cells have to be dramatically reduced in size — as small as to cover single rooms, buildings, bus stops, high traffic junctions and so on. This will be a challenge, especially in relation to interconnections (line of sight) interference. An architecture based on smaller cells will also require a high level of intelligence within these cells, as some people will be rapidly changing from one small cell to another. There have been several false starts and so far the results of small cell networks in the USA have not been encouraging. Costs are still too high and there are technical problems still to be overcome — for example, getting bandwidth capacity to these cells in a cost-effective way is already a major issue, and in a booming mobile broadband market the need for more capacity is only going to increase.
Because of its complexity, small cells on their own are not going to solve the capacity problems the industry is facing.
Another unavoidable development is that a range of technologies, frequencies and protocols will be needed to overcome the problems. White Space technology, initially developed as a data casting technology using TV spectrum has since moved into the backhaul network; whatever backhaul technology is available, and makes sense, will need to become a part of such a heterogeneous structure. White space technology does causes problems at the mobile phone level and is therefore not well-suited as a user access technology, but it can be used for backhaul operations.
We already mentioned fibre but WiFi and WiMAX are also already deployed. One solution that operators are using is that mobile broadband traffic is offloaded from the mobile network ASAP. It is estimated that 80% of mobile broadband usage takes place via WiFi connections back into the fixed networks. Over 60% of tablets don't even have a mobile connection. They rely solely on WiFi connections. As we have mentioned before, the enormous growth in demand for mobile and wireless broadband will also lead to a further explosion in WiFi. A more seamless integration of WiFi and cellular technologies was another issue that was discussed at the conference.
With no clear future direction the existing technologies and tools will have to suffice in the meantime, which means a mobile broadband infrastructure shortage for at least the next five years. A side effect of all of this is that all mobile networks have to work with data caps in order to manage the capacity shortage and this makes mobile broadband very expensive compared to fixed broadband. On average, capacity on a mobile network is 5 to 10 times more expensive than capacity on a fixed network.
It is worrying that there is no clear road map or any clear-cut solutions to the problem of mobile infrastructure. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, with more spectrum, more efficient use of the spectrum and new technologies, such as small cells, this will not be sufficient to get ahead of the issue any time soon. What the most likely solution will be also remained unclear and this makes it all the more difficult for network operators to make appropriate investment decisions.
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